At a recent preparatory meeting for the upcoming summit between leaders of Russia and the 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations, ASEAN officials politely dodged Russia’s requests to become an ASEAN “strategic partner,” and to hold an exclusive meeting with the regional bloc’s defense ministers.
May 15, 2016 5:47 pm JST
At a recent preparatory meeting for the upcoming summit between leaders of Russia and the 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations, ASEAN officials politely dodged Russia’s requests to become an ASEAN “strategic partner,” and to hold an exclusive meeting with the regional bloc’s defense ministers.
From the Southeast Asian perspective, the reason was quite obvious: despite its professed commitments and good will toward the region, Russia has not yet done enough for ASEAN to deserve a positive reponse, at least for now.
That could soon change. Russian President Vladimir Putin will not miss the opportunity to meet with ASEAN leaders during the May 19-20 summit in the resort city of Sochi, an occasion that he clearly hopes will herald a new era in relations along with closer economic and strategic ties.
Russia is keen to embark on a closer relationship with the regional bloc, particularly at a time when ASEAN is in search of a new countervailing force in the region beyond the U.S.-China axis. Moscow’s eagerness to engage with ASEAN has also been driven by the search for new trade and investment opportunities, a matter of urgency since the imposition of Western economic sanctions on Russia following its 2014 military occupation of Crimea.
Until now, Moscow has had a checkered record as a dialogue partner with ASEAN. After Russia and the U.S. were admitted to the region’s top-level security forum, the East Asia Summit, in 2010, Russian President Vladimir Putin failed to attend subsequent meetings, much to the chagrin of ASEAN leaders. (Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev however attended the previous EAS last November in Kuala Lumpur, on Putin’s behalf.)
The first 10-year Russia-ASEAN action plan, which ended in 2015, was a huge disappointment with few achievements. A new five-year framework to be announced at Sochi will be more pragmatic and deliverable, a reflection of Russia’s markedly increased interest in ASEAN over the past two years.
The volume of Russia-ASEAN bilateral trade is miniscule in comparison with China, Japan and the U.S. The latest figure in 2014 recorded a total value of $22.5 billion in two-way trade, making Russia the bloc’s eighth-largest trading partner. Both sides have yet to set a target for their future trade volume.
By comparison, China and ASEAN have set a two-way trade volume at $1 trillion by 2020. ASEAN and other dialogue partners including China, Japan, South Korea, India, New Zealand and Australia are currently negotiating the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership trade pact, which is likely to be finalized by early next year.
Steps are already being taken to improve bilateral trade ties. Russia recently proposed the negotiation of a free trade agreement between ASEAN and the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU). Last year, Vietnam became the first ASEAN member to sign a free trade agreement with EEU, and Thailand is keen to follow suit.