The world will be watching Myanmar more closely in 2015 as economic and political reforms launched in 2012 enter their third year. The past two years confirmed the enormity of the challenges as the nation embraces democracy. In 2015 as the bumpy road will only get bumpier. But Myanmar has probably gone past the point of no return, so it will have to keep moving through uncharted territory.
The Nation January 7, 2015 1:00 am
With an election coming in the autumn, it’s essential to take the right steps now.
The world will be watching Myanmar more closely in 2015 as economic and political reforms launched in 2012 enter their third year. The past two years confirmed the enormity of the challenges as the nation embraces democracy. In 2015 as the bumpy road will only get bumpier. But Myanmar has probably gone past the point of no return, so it will have to keep moving through uncharted territory.
After making commitments to the world, Myanmar has welcomed an influx of foreign investments and assistance. These come with a price, however. It is required to trade military rule for economic prosperity. Among its unresolved issues, the top priority is to clean house. All of its challenges – political, economic and social – are intertwined.
Foreign investments would only prosper only if there are internationally recognised laws in place, and a solid bureaucracy. These won’t improve without political reform, and without that, it remains difficult for foreign firms to extend their interests. Problems such as land-grabbing and ethnic hostilities resurfaced last year, generating more concern in the private sector and among potential investors.
Of all the challenges, the international community’s focus will be the upcoming general election, the first to be held in Myanmar in six decades, following by-elections in 2010. The government realises how important it is to the country’s future. A free and fair election would reaffirm its commitment to democracy and reassure foreign investors and donors.
If the 2015 presidential election is inclusive and transparent, they will certainly spend more on Myanmar. France, for example, plans to increase its financial assistance tenfold if the poll meets international standards.
It remains to be seen whether the exclusion of democracy icon Aung San Suu Kyi from the presidential election will have an impact. There were attempts in the past year to amend the 2008 Constitution to allow anyone with a foreign spouse or children to contest the presidency. Suu Kyi had to concede to Parliament’s refusal to do so, but we can expect more such efforts before the election takes place in either October or November.
Meanwhile the military must demonstrate its intent to loosen its grips on politics. It must yield political control to ensure continued input of foreign currencies. Military domination of the legislature signals that totalitarianism still hangs in the air.
The country’s ethnic conflicts must also be brought to a close. The violence runs counter to fostering a good business environment. Several infrastructure projects are planned in the areas controlled by armed ethnic groups and the government is reportedly geared up to sign ceasefire agreements ahead of the election. This will be another arduous task, but it has to be done for the sake of progress.
Likewise, the international community is paying close attention to issues involving human rights. The seizure of land by developers, the continued incarceration of political prisoners, the plight of people displaced by armed conflict and the failure to ensure press freedom will be factors taken into consideration by foreign donors and investors.
The analysis among foreign observers is fraught with scepticism and grave concern as Myanmar attempts to overcome its challenges. Failure could derail reform. This year will certainly be a turning point. If it adopts the right path, the country could leapfrog past its neighbours economically and politically. Any misstep would take it back to square one.
